Brunei hosts the 25th ASEAN-EU meeting as the Iran energy crisis shakes global markets

Tense atmosphere amid the global energy crisis

BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN — In the grand hall of a luxury hotel in the city center, ASEAN and EU delegations gathered in heavy silence. Outside, crude oil prices surged 18% in two weeks after attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and new Western sanctions. The 25th ASEAN-EU Foreign Ministers' Meeting, held on April 28, 2026, was not just a routine diplomatic event. It became a real test: could two blocks with different economic interests coordinate a joint response when the global energy market was shaking? For Brunei — a small country with an economy almost entirely dependent on oil and gas — every discussion in the meeting room could determine the sustainability of fuel subsidies, unemployment rates, and the government budget.

Commitment to multilateralism — and its limits

In his opening speech, Second Foreign Minister of Brunei, Dato Erywan Yusof, did not waste time with empty praise. "Our relevance, whether together or alone, will be measured by our ability to consistently uphold these principles without discrimination — and translate them into concrete results-oriented cooperation," he said. His words hit the mark: Saudi Arabia had recently cut oil production by one million barrels per day; Russia had cut gas supplies to several European countries. Amid this reality, this meeting produced an initial agreement for energy supply chain data exchange and joint training of regional energy security officers.

Wobbly subsidies, people feeling the impact

For Brunei's citizens, the Iran crisis is not just news on television. It is felt at gas stations, in convenience stores, and in government meeting rooms. Fuel and diesel subsidies — which have made fuel prices among the cheapest in the world — are now under review. The government has indicated that subsidy adjustments may be necessary if oil prices remain above USD 95 per barrel for six consecutive months. "We feel every cent of oil price movement in Brunei. When Iran is unstable, fuel prices here may not rise immediately, but the long-term effects will be felt," said a merchant in Gadong who wished to remain anonymous. Oil and gas exports contribute 92% of government revenue — a figure that makes global supply disruptions not just an economic risk, but an existential threat.

Brunei as a peacemaker — not a divider

Brunei does not offer big answers. It offers space. As a country not directly involved in the Middle East conflict and without strategic interests conflicting with any major party, Brunei functions as a natural peacemaker. It serves as a bridge between Cambodia and Laos — which import 70% of their energy — and Malaysia and Indonesia — which export liquefied gas to East Asia. Dato Erywan, in a press conference after the meeting, emphasized: "We cannot choose principles based on comfort. In the Iran crisis, we must unite to ensure the security of this region." No grand promises. Just a commitment to continue discussions — even when political temperatures rise.

First steps: task force, solar projects, and the reality of transition

Concrete outcomes from the meeting include the EU's commitment to help ASEAN accelerate the installation of 2 gigawatts of solar power capacity within five years, supported by battery storage technology and local engineer training. A special ASEAN-EU task force will also be established to monitor oil and gas supply chains — with an initial focus on major ports in Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas, and Port Klang. For Brunei, which has a solar potential of 3.2 kWh/m²/day, this is not just following the trend. It is a real opportunity to reduce fossil fuel dependence — although, as acknowledged by a senior Brunei Energy Ministry official in closed-door discussions: "Energy transition is a journey, not an immediate destination."

South China Sea, digital trade — and the shadow of the energy crisis

The meeting also discussed maritime security in the South China Sea and cooperation in digital trade, including mutual recognition of e-certification systems for agricultural exports. But the shadow of the energy crisis was always present. Every time another issue was discussed, delegates returned to the same question: how to ensure supply stability if geopolitical pressures increase? Analysts in Brussels predict that oil prices will remain above USD 90 per barrel until the end of 2026. For Brunei and many ASEAN countries, this means a challenging summer — not in terms of weather, but in terms of inflation, fiscal pressure, and social uncertainty.

Principles on paper, actions underground

At the end of the meeting, ministers issued a joint statement reaffirming support for international rules-based order. No revolution was promised. No declaration of war against fossil fuel dependence. What exists are three practical commitments: supply chain data exchange, joint energy security training, and an initial fund of EUR 120 million for renewable energy projects in low-income ASEAN countries. For Brunei's citizens, the true meaning of this meeting is not in the final document — but at the gas station tomorrow morning, in the Finance Ministry meeting room next week, and in the solar energy project map to be announced in three months.