That morning, Darman, a bus driver in Pulo Gadung, Jakarta, looked at the gas station price board with a furrowed brow. Premium had risen by Rp400 in three days. "They say it's because imported oil prices have gone up," he said, wiping sweat before returning to the driver's seat. Thousands of kilometers away, at the end of the Strait of Hormuz, an unresolved decision was determining the fate of the fuel in his bus's tank.
Iran's Tariff Still Hanging
The United States has not given assurance that Iran will be prohibited from collecting tariffs on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the 60-day transition period ends this August. The temporary agreement between Washington and Tehran — signed early this month — only delayed the decision, not resolved it.
"We are still in the negotiation process," said a U.S. Department of State official to Reuters, without revealing their name. "Iran has significant economic interests there, and regional stability cannot be ignored." The Strait of Hormuz is not just a waterway: 20% of global oil consumption passes through it every day. If tariffs are imposed, the cost of crude oil transportation will rise — and the burden will be passed on to gas pumps across Southeast Asia.
Indonesia's Oil Imports: Fragile and Open
Indonesia is now a net oil importer — despite having once been an OPEC member. Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that in 2025, the country will import about 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day, mostly from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates — all of which depend on the Strait of Hormuz.
"Our dependence on this route is very high," stated Faisal Basri, an energy economist from the University of Indonesia, in a virtual discussion last week. "The impact is not just at the gas stations, but also on rice prices, transport costs, and wages that are no longer sufficient for meals."
LPG is also affected. Indonesia imports liquefied gas from Qatar and the UAE — two countries whose ships must pass through the strait. Analysts estimate that an additional 5% tariff per ton of cargo could raise domestic LPG prices by 7–10%, a direct blow to 30 million poor households relying on blue cylinders for cooking.
Temporary Agreement That Offers No Relief
The U.S.-Iran agreement emerged from secret meetings in Oman in mid-May. Iran agreed to temporarily halt high-level uranium enrichment; the U.S. eased sanctions on ship insurance and financial transfers. But what about the Strait of Hormuz? It was set aside for the *next round*. The 60-day transition period only delayed the decision — not eliminated the risk.
Markets reacted quickly. Brent crude prices jumped 3% in the last two trading days, approaching US$95 per barrel. Goldman Sachs warned: if the tariff is actually implemented, prices could reach US$105 in the short term.
Limited Measures, Increasing Pressure
The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has conveyed its official concerns. "We urge all parties to maintain the stability of the Strait of Hormuz," said the spokesperson of the ministry during a press conference in Jakarta last Wednesday. But concrete measures remain scarce.
Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia mentioned the scenario of supply diversification — such as buying oil from Nigeria or Angola — but admitted that logistics are more expensive and take time. Other alternatives: accelerate the transition to renewable energy and reduce fuel subsidies that burden the state budget. But these steps are sensitive. "This is the time for us to seriously reduce our dependence on imported oil," emphasized Faisal Basri. "The Strait of Hormuz is not just geography — it is a mirror of the fragility of the national energy system."
For Darman, the uncertainty means he has to cut his children's allowances or delay tire changes. "My hope is that the government can control the prices. But if the oil from abroad rises, what can be done?" he said softly, then started the bus engine. In the distant negotiation table, diplomats are still discussing. And at every gas station in Jakarta, Surabaya, or Makassar — their decisions are already felt in the pockets of the people.