'A Very Tough Cookie': Trump's Weighty Phrase
The phrase 'a very tough cookie' may sound light in casual conversation, but in Trump's diplomatic lexicon, it is a high compliment rarely given. When speaking with Axios at the end of June 2024, Trump not only called Modi one of the two world leaders he most admires — along with Chinese President Xi Jinping — but also emphasized the strong personal rapport between them, despite trade tensions. This is not the first time Trump has used food metaphors to describe leaders (he once called Putin 'a very strong cookie'), but the context this time is different: India is not just a trade partner, but a major democracy maintaining strategic flexibility in a multipolar system.
This phrase is not empty praise. In the record of bilateral negotiations since 2017, India has resisted U.S. pressure to reduce oil imports from Iran and Russia, maintained trade systems with countries sanctioned by the U.S., and consistently rejected pressure to join economic alliances such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) in its original form. Data from the USTR shows that U.S.-India trade value increased by 38% between 2021 and 2023 — reaching USD 191 billion — but the U.S. goods trade deficit still exceeded USD 35 billion in 2023. Trump, known for his 'America First' approach, appreciates Modi's unyielding stance — something rarely found in negotiations with traditional European allies.
Behind the Apulia G7: Trade Talks Beyond Tariffs
The G7 meeting in Apulia is not just a symbolic forum. For India — although not an official member — Modi's presence as a guest of honor marks formal recognition of the country's role as a de facto third global power. During their joint press conference, both leaders announced significant progress in side agreements on trade, including relaxation of quotas for Indian agricultural products like dried mangoes and spices, as well as commitments to accelerate the certification process for Indian generic drugs seeking to be exported to the U.S. According to a report by the Indian Ministry of Commerce, more than 62% of generic drugs in the U.S. market come from India, but only 12% of the 1,800 Indian manufacturing plants have full FDA approval — a technical hurdle now the focus of negotiations.
More interestingly, the 'non-tariff' part of the agreement: collaboration in vaccine research, AI standards for cybersecurity, and mutual recognition of professional certifications in IT and engineering. This is no longer about market access, but about co-shaping technical norms — an important step for India to move up the global value chain. As a comparison, the value of India's digital services exports to the U.S. increased by 47% in 2023, reaching USD 28.4 billion, according to NASSCOM. Trump knows: facing China, the U.S. needs a partner capable of building alternative digital infrastructure — not just importing products.
South Asia Through a Multipolar Lens: Between Quad, SCO, and Pakistan's Uncertainty
For South Asian countries, Trump's praise for Modi is not just a Delhi-Washington matter. It subtly and deeply changes regional dynamics. Pakistan, which has long relied on U.S. support on security issues, now faces increasing pressure to adapt to the reality that Washington is focusing more on India as a counterweight to China's influence in the region. IMF data shows that FDI inflows to Pakistan dropped by 33% between 2022 and 2023, while those to India increased by 14%. More notably, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project faces payment delays and environmental approval delays — while India-US are accelerating digital silk road infrastructure projects through the I2U2 initiative (India, Israel, UAE, U.S.).
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also in a cautious position. Both countries are balancing loans from China with U.S. encouragement to switch to 'clean' funding sources through the Blue Dot Network. However, without India as a regional partner capable of providing technical and logistical capacity — as shown in the Chabahar port project in Iran — these efforts are difficult to succeed. Here, 'toughness' of Modi is not about defiance, but about the ability to offer legitimate and sustainable alternatives.
Looking Ahead: Not Just Transactions, But a Transformation of Relations
India-U.S. relations will never become a classical alliance like NATO. But they are evolving into what experts at the Carnegie Endowment call 'strategic convergence without formal alliance.' What distinguishes it is the presence of joint institutions — from Quad night military exercises to joint research centers in Bengaluru and Austin — that build technical interdependence that is hard to sever. Trump may not like multilateralism, but he values real results: more than 200,000 Indian students are now studying in the U.S., and 87% of Fortune 500 companies have operations or partners in India.
In the long term, Trump's praise is not just an acknowledgment of Modi as an individual — it is an acknowledgment of India as a geopolitical entity that no longer seeks permission to act, but now sets the terms. And for South Asia, that means a new era: not under the shadow of great powers, but in a space where local wisdom, not external interests, becomes the main determinant of the future.